Ecological Disasters

Rescuers fled to Kashmir, India after landslides buried innocent people who were fleeing their homes due to flooding caused by “unseasonal rains” (Bukhari). On Monday, March 30^th police announced that the incident had killed 6 and left another 10 missing.  

In a small village a hillside collapsed early on Monday morning, where three families resided, all of whom were sleeping at the time of the incident. Rescuers were forced to use shovels and diggers to locate survivors.

The area police superintendent stated that the death toll was probably only going to rise further.

This incident can be linked to India’s extreme rainfall as of lately, which studies say is caused by climate warming, a man made cause. Additionally, March 2015, this month, has been the wettest month in India in more than one hundred years, “wrecking millions of hectares of winter crops” (Bukhari). This has also been cited as the cause of many recent cases of farmer suicide.

So, this especially rainy season has caused flooding, landslides, wreckage of crops, as well as deaths.

This incident should absolutely be considered a disaster due to its far reaching consequences which provide a huge hazard for the people of Kashmir, because as the superintendent said, the death toll is only predicted to rise. Also, because this area does not have stellar infrastructure, the people are extremely vulnerable to flooding and due to the unpredictability of the storm it is also especially hard to manage.  

Another similar ecological disaster occurred in the 1920s and 30s. The infamous Dust Bowl was, like the Kashmir floods, caused by man. After World War I farmers turned to new farming equipment, which led to overproduction. But at the same time the Great Depression led to reduced market prices. Because farmers could not make profits from their crops, they expanded their fields. Instead of bringing financial success to the farmers, “plow-based farming in this re­gion cultivated an unexpected yield: the loss of fertile topsoil that literally blew away in the winds, leaving the land vulnerable to drought and inhospitable for growing crops” (Trimarchi).

Like the Indian floods, the Dust Bowl caused land to become ruined and death of farmers and their families, and thus should also be considered an ecological disaster propelled by man. The Dust Bowl was impossible to manage and control the exposure of.

While these two ecological disasters occurred in very different time periods, they  have many similarities and should both be considered disasters in their own respect.

Sources

 http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/30/kashmir-floods-idINKBN0MQ0I520150330

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/dust-bowl-cause.htm

Germanwings Plane Crash. Disaster? Terrorist attack? Or simply just a horrible tragedy?

In recent news, this Tuesday, March twenty-fourth, a plane, Germanwings Flight 9525, crashed into the southern Alps of France and killed all 150 passengers on board. The plane was in route from Barcelona, Spain, to Düsseldorf, Germany. The plane contained 144 passengers and six crew members.


Timeline:
Flight took off at 10:01 am, and was 26 minutes late.
10:18- The plane reached cruising altitude of 38,000 feet.
10:31- The plane alters course and begins to descend rapidly.
10:34 the plane is descending at nearly 4,000 feet per minute.
10:53 at 6,000 feet, air traffic controllers lose contact with the plane. Minutes later the plane crashes.

The weather that day in the area was completely clear and calm, so many are wondering what could have caused this. Search teams have found one of the black boxes in the wreckage and have been able to analyze what was said in the cabin of the plane, right before the crash. Since Tuesday, when the crash occurred, more and more evidence has come up, such as that one of the co-pilots was locked out of the cabin and was banging on the door to be let in. Just this morning, French investigators have deemed that one of the co-pilots, named Andreas Lubitz, wanted to "destroy the plane." As to why he wanted to do such a thing, is still an unanswered question. Luckily updates are regular so we should soon find out. From the evidence that has come up, he seemed like a normal young guy that enjoyed pop music, had a lot of friends and lived with his parents. So far nothing has been found about possible links between Andreas Lubitz and any terrorist or extremist groups. 

How does this relate to our class? Well last week we talked about terrorism and disasters and read an article called "Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?" By Claude Berrebi and Jordan Ostwald. Part of the article gave the a an incite as to criteria of what makes a terrorist act a terrorist act. Briefly, it said things such as, "The incident had to be intentional... It had to entail some level of violence or threat of violence-this includes damage to property... The act had to be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal." (Berrebi and Ostwald, 387). So far, from what is known, this act was intentional and entailed a great level of violence, but it did not do any damage to any property. If the French Alps were not monitored as much as they are, this crash could have gone unnoticed and had been discovered later than it actually was. There is also no known goal by the co-pilot to attain anything social or political.

So far evidence does not show that the plane crash was an act of terror, but what could lead a young adult to want to do something so horrendous and out of the ordinary? This plane crash is, without a doubt, a tragedy, but it may also be considered a disaster if you consider the facts and the possibility that it was an act of terror.

Sources

• Berrebi, Claude, and Jordan Ostwald. "Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Terrorism: Do Natural Disasters Incite Terror?" Public Choice 149.3-4 (2011): 383-403. 
• http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32063587
• http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/europe/france-germanwings-crash-what-we-know/
• http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/mar/26/germanwings-plane-crash-investigation-press-conference-live-updates-4u9525
• http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/europe/germanwings-airbus-crash.html?_r=

Cyclone Pam & its effect on Vanuatu

Last Friday and Saturday cyclone Pam -- the worst in the country's history -- made its way through Oceania, almost completely destroying the island nation of Vanuatu. As a small nation of only a little over 250,000 inhabitants, Vanuatu is currently struggling to provide the care necessary for the injured, the needy, and the potentially dangerous situations that have yet to come.

The cyclone destroyed ninety percent of the country's infrastructure (this number includes governmental buildings as well as private sector offices), and killed eleven people on the spot (a number that is expected to unfortunately increase). As of this moment the country has forty-eight evacuation shelters, but the problem itself is that the country consists of more than eighty-two separate islands. How exactly does a government help its people when the government can't even help itself?

The cyclone hit the cellular towers spread throughout the country and has basically left the country without communication. So the aid that is being granted to Vanuatu through countries like Australia, New Zealand, France, and some American NGOs cannot be distributed adequately because there is no communication as to what is needed and where people must go to receive said aid. The second problem is that much of the damage has not yet been assessed because of the immense amount of territory the cyclone hit. Australian, New Zealander, and New Caledonian forces are trying to help as much as they can in any way that they can, but there is just so much to do that no one really knows where to begin, and that's causing more of a problem than the original problem itself.

Sources:

• http://www.wsj.com/articles/devastated-vanuatu-faces-uncertain-future-after-cyclone-pam-1426831012
• http://www.wired.com/2015/03/severe-challenges-bringing-cyclone-relief-vanuatu/
• http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/20/vanuatu-relief/25067149/

Tunis Bardo Museum Bombing
Mark Perry March 19th, 2015

On Wednesday, Mar 18th multiple gunmen entered the famous Bardo Museum in Tunis, Tunisia. The museum features relics from the Ancient Greece, Rome and from the Islamic world. The gunmen started shooting tourists inside the museum which resulted in 17 confirmed deaths, and 24 injuries as of today. The tourists which were killed were from countries such as Italy, France, and Japan. Two of the gunmen were killed during the attack by Tunisian forces, and one security officer and one clean women were also killed by the gunmen.

Upon news of this attack, worldwide news outlets such as CNN and The Guardian started posting articles dealing with the event, the possible identities of the gunmen and the implications. The Prime Minister of Tunisia, Habib Essio, issued a statement in the wake of the attack, including "....cowardly assault targeting economy". The 3 hour siege and hostage situation has sparked mass social media posts and views across the country.

Finally as of today Isis has claimed responsibility for the attack, saying "just the start". While their responsibility has not been officially ruled senior US officials have said that we should take their statements seriously. 9 individuals have been arrested in conjunction with the attack in Tunisia and are under investigation.

This event comes to this dismay of the relatively successful country of Tunisia. Success here can be seen as their liberation and democratization, as they have been described as the "lone democratic success of the Arab Spring". The North African country however does have conflict and recently it was reported that 3,000 jihadisits from Tunisia have made their way to Syria and Iraq. These facts and ideas are pertinent to this event as the world can see how the environment of Tunisia is both one of harboring jihadists while also being successful at pushing democracy in the Arab world.

In terms of risk, the Bardo museum itself was not in any way prepared for an attack of this magnitude or strength. There were little to no guards and not enough safety measures to prevent an attack. While we can look and say that the museum should have had more safety precautions, why would it? Museums have historically been sacred locations avoided by terrorist organizations and in times of war. During World War II the Nazis avoided bombing historical sites and museums, such as in Italy with the protection of famous museums and artifacts by Mussolini. So the assumption can be made that the Bardo Museum was not irresponsible in its security methods.

So if it was not the museum responsible in preventing this attack who was? According to  Peter Haas in his work Addressing the Global Governance Deficit the globalizing world and new political actors are at fault for global governance problems. In this case, the globalizing world makes the most sense. With the emersion of social media in terrorist organizations, such as ISIS, scheming, recruiting and implementing terrorist attacks have never been easier. It seems that every week we see new articles of ISIS recruiting teens from the United States for their terrorist organization. Through Peter Haas analysis we can see that as the world gets smaller, so does the risk. This pushes the international community to work harder to prevent terrorist attacks and have a leg up on threats.



Sources

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/18/eight-people-killed-in-attack-on-tunisia-bardo-museum

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/18/africa/tunisia-parliament-evacuated/

Addressing the Global Governance Deficit Peter M Haas. 

Deadly Terrorist Attack in Tunisia 

       On Wednesday there was a deadly terrorist attack at the Bardo Museum in the Arab nation of Tunisia. This museum is a large tourist attraction as well as the entire country. This mass shooting was done by ISIS as they have claimed responsibility. Why did ISIS do this? Their motives are leading to a wide scale disaster.

       Tunisia was previously known as the only democratic success following the Arab Spring in 2011. However, CNN reports that there is instability throughout the country regarding an "uneven economy". Also, up to 3,000 Tunisians are believed to have gone to Iraq and Syria to fight as jihadists. The terrorist attack on Wednesday left the Arabian country extremely shaken. Leaving 23 people killed and 36 others hospitalized. The gunmen who according to witnesses were,"carrying assault rifles, opened fire on tourists". Some of the victims were three Tunisians, five Japanese, four Italians, two Colombians, and two Spaniards. The majority of these victims were tourists from various ethnic backgrounds.Although the amount of people harmed in this attack was not extremely large, it is still significant.

       This terrorist attack done by ISIS means a lot more than just deaths. This attack was strategically targeted on Tunisia's economy. According to BBC, in 2014, 6.1 million tourists came to Tunisia, 14% of the total employment are supported by travel and tourism, and 15.2% of their GDP is from tourism. It is a huge way of life for this nation. ISIS targeted this and significantly harmed their economy. Mohammad Ali Troudi, a taxi driver in Tunis in regards to the attack says,"They hit the heart of our livelihood."
      Although this event is not a disaster, it is a part of a bigger picture. The bigger picture being ISIS as a whole as related in the previous blog; "Is ISIS a disaster?". The amount of people and various international actors involved in ISIS labels it a wide scale disaster. There is a huge uprooting of civilians, wide-scale violence, and corruption. ISIS continues to gain more land and more people and launch terrorist attacks. Although this deadly terrorist attack in Tunisia is not labeled a disaster, it is part of a bigger disaster.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31960926
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/19/africa/tunisia-museum-attack/index.html

Escalation as the Determining Factor

As we have recently been discussing in class, many of the events that have been occurring with Boko Haram and the Islamic State are not disasters when isolated, but when added to the equation they increase the severity of the disaster. Each tragedy or crisis that a terrorist group causes, creates the escalation factor. The reason we think of the overall attacks of Boko Haram and the Islamic State as disasters, is not only due to just one event, such as when the school girls were taken in Nigeria, but the fact that each new terror they cause makes us question what they could do next.

Just today, as of 9am, 28,000 people are having to evacuate the city of Tikrit in Iraq because of fighting that will take place due to Iraq trying to regain control of the city from the IS. Now 28,000 people being displaced usually would give means for calling this a disaster, but since the displacement is happening in the beginning stages of the fighting, which is in the fourth day, I would not consider this singular event a disaster, but more of a crisis. If the 28,000 were displaced and/or injured or killed after the fighting then I would say we could call this a disaster.



What makes this so frightening, and also a piece of the overall Islamic State disaster, is that this could keep happening as the Islamic State takes control of more and more territory and Iraq tries to fight for the territory back. Those that are being displaced from Tikrit are being taken to the city of Samarra. But the question is: Then what if the Islamic State tries, and even succeeds, in taking over Samarra? If Iraq decides to then try and take that city back then even more people will be affected. This will only increase the vulnerability of the people to an attack by ISIS, which again would escalate the disaster to another level.

While I applaud Iraq for taking steps to "push back" against the Islamic State, as one reporter put it, and trying to use this disaster as a silver lining to show that the Iraqi military, as well as the government, can handle ISIS on their own, the danger is if Iraqi troops only make matters worse by increasing the vulnerability of the citizens that are being displaced due to efforts to regain territory from ISIS. This would definitely bring in the factor of escalation because you don't only have ISIS causing tens of thousands of people to leave there homes or to be killed, but you have the Iraqi military also causing that many people to be displaced and find new shelter, only to probably have to move again to another region of the country. What makes this one event such a huge piece of the disaster is what if the Iraqi military fails at gaining Tikrit back and the Islamic State only gains more motivation to take over more territory, such as Samarra, where there are now an extra 28,000 people? This right here is why the escalation factor makes such a huge difference in what makes up a disaster.



Sources:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31723327
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31753727

The Importance of Magnitude in a Crisis

As the cliche goes history repeats. Genocides and disasters have happened often in history, but the reactions and management of the situations have varied.

In 1933, the holocaust began when Hitler came into office and ordered the Nazi party in Germany to round up millions of Jews, Gypsies, homosexuals, mentally and physically disabled people and placing them in concentration camps. Between 1933 and 1945,  not only were they restricted from receiving proper health care and were severely malnourished, but 11 million people were killed under Hitler’s order.  

This mass genocide can be considered a humanitarian disaster for a few reasons. The German minorities were extremely vulnerable. Due to  Germany’s economic hardship it was easy to blame minorities for Germany’s struggle. Also, with any disaster lives could’ve been saved with better manageability. Millions of lives were taken, because they were exposed to the horrific treatment from the Nazi’s for years. The situation was made worse by the obvious lack of disaster management from the German government, while the international community was slow to react.

Fast forward to 2014, concentration camps have popped up in Myanmar. In them are the Muslim minority group, Rohingya. The majority of the country is Buddhist, and violence against the Muslim minorities began  in 2012 when, according to the NewsRepublic.com, “Three Muslims allegedly raped and murdered a Buddhist girl in southern Arakan.” After that alleged incident there was an increase on the attacks against Muslims. The first incident being the brutal beating and murder of ten Muslims on a bus.

So far, not only have 167 Muslims been murdered but over 250,000 have been displaced, while the government chooses not to recognize the 1.3 million Rohingyas in the country. Now there are hundreds of thousands of people in concentration camps. Many people die everyday due to malnutrition and disease, and of February the government has prohibited the group Doctors Without Borders from entering, while the international community has stayed silent. If the Rohingyas attempt to leave to camps they would be imprisoned by the police or lynched by the public.

Now, there are a lot of parallels between the the persecution of minorities during the Holocaust and the current situation, but unlike the Holocaust what’s going on in Myanmar has yet to be considered a disaster even though the Rohingyas were both in a vulnerable position and are constantly exposed to hazards brought upon by the government and the Buddhist majority.

The main difference, besides politics and time periods, is the magnitude. During the holocaust there was no international intervention until millions of people died, but should the international community wait for the scale of humanitarian crisis in Myanmar to increase to also take action? Currently, there is no involvement from the international community and a lack of management and accountability on the government's part.

Below are photos that show similar conditions in the Holocaust and the current situation in Myanmar.

Victims in Thet Kay Pyin Zay Camp

Victims in Auschwitz 

Disclaimer: Few pictures cannot capture the entirety of both crisis. Also, the degree and magnitude of both events are not exactly the same, although they are similar in some ways.

Sources:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116241/burma-2014-countryside-concentration-camps
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Holocaust/history.html
http://time.com/2888864/rohingya-myanmar-burma-camps-sittwe/

Made Worse By Man

Donetsk, Ukraine is not new to the media after its' capture by rebels and the following months of continued conflict that have plagued the city. Then this past Wednesday, “a methane gas explosion in a coal mine killed at least 24 workers and left nine missing” (USA Today).
The rescue efforts lasted very long, many arguing that it was much too long, with separatist authorities accusing the Ukrainian government of not trying hard enough to save the trapped men.
The death toll of the blast has become quite the controversy as the rebel government, the one that has control of the city, has been inefficient in disclosing information, while the Ukranian government quickly announced a death toll of 32, before later retracting the statement. Originally, the rebels argued that there was only one death, but the total has been sense raised to 24, with more people stated as missing.
The incident was made worse by the government, or lack there of that is in place in the city. Because of the conflicting stances of the two parties, the coal mine explosion has been difficult to control, and to this day there are still 32 unaccounted for workers. The Ukrainian Prime Minister even blamed the rebels of preventing a Ukrainian rescue team from entering the mines to help save the workers. This incident should be absolutely considered a disaster because of how vulnerable this area is due to the impending conflict and the state the government is in. Also, because mining is so hazardous to everyone involved, and the activity occurs so deep below ground this disaster is both difficult to manage and has a huge risk associated with it.
In terms of the government making a disaster worse, we can see this in America’s own

history. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and while this storm was named one of the five deadliest hurricanes to hit the United States, the government that was in place at the time only made the disaster worse. The response that was provided was delayed and many people who survived the actual hurricane, died because of lack of water, food, and shelter due to this slow response by the Government. 

While neither of these responses were manmade, the acting governments at the time helped to make the situations worse and further the disaster longer than it should have been. In terms of Ukraine, if the conflict there was not occurring the media would have been able to know exactly what was happening and the rescue crews would have been able to get in safely and effectively. In terms of Hurricane Katrina, the governments lack of preparedness caused many extra casualties and further perpetuated the already awful Hurricane. Both of these incidents should be classified as natural disasters perpetuated by man. 

Sources

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/04/mine-blast-ukraine/24359799/

http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2010/finalwebsite/katrina/government/government-response.html