Escalation as the Determining Factor

As we have recently been discussing in class, many of the events that have been occurring with Boko Haram and the Islamic State are not disasters when isolated, but when added to the equation they increase the severity of the disaster. Each tragedy or crisis that a terrorist group causes, creates the escalation factor. The reason we think of the overall attacks of Boko Haram and the Islamic State as disasters, is not only due to just one event, such as when the school girls were taken in Nigeria, but the fact that each new terror they cause makes us question what they could do next.

Just today, as of 9am, 28,000 people are having to evacuate the city of Tikrit in Iraq because of fighting that will take place due to Iraq trying to regain control of the city from the IS. Now 28,000 people being displaced usually would give means for calling this a disaster, but since the displacement is happening in the beginning stages of the fighting, which is in the fourth day, I would not consider this singular event a disaster, but more of a crisis. If the 28,000 were displaced and/or injured or killed after the fighting then I would say we could call this a disaster.



What makes this so frightening, and also a piece of the overall Islamic State disaster, is that this could keep happening as the Islamic State takes control of more and more territory and Iraq tries to fight for the territory back. Those that are being displaced from Tikrit are being taken to the city of Samarra. But the question is: Then what if the Islamic State tries, and even succeeds, in taking over Samarra? If Iraq decides to then try and take that city back then even more people will be affected. This will only increase the vulnerability of the people to an attack by ISIS, which again would escalate the disaster to another level.

While I applaud Iraq for taking steps to "push back" against the Islamic State, as one reporter put it, and trying to use this disaster as a silver lining to show that the Iraqi military, as well as the government, can handle ISIS on their own, the danger is if Iraqi troops only make matters worse by increasing the vulnerability of the citizens that are being displaced due to efforts to regain territory from ISIS. This would definitely bring in the factor of escalation because you don't only have ISIS causing tens of thousands of people to leave there homes or to be killed, but you have the Iraqi military also causing that many people to be displaced and find new shelter, only to probably have to move again to another region of the country. What makes this one event such a huge piece of the disaster is what if the Iraqi military fails at gaining Tikrit back and the Islamic State only gains more motivation to take over more territory, such as Samarra, where there are now an extra 28,000 people? This right here is why the escalation factor makes such a huge difference in what makes up a disaster.



Sources:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31723327
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31753727